How is BTTS probability calculated?

BTTS (Both Teams to Score) = (1 − e^(−homeXG)) × (1 − e^(−awayXG)). Each team's scoring probability is derived from their expected goals using the Poisson distribution. The clean sheet probability for each team equals e^(−xG).

What are fair odds for Over/Under markets?

Fair odds = 1 / probability. For Over 2.5 goals: sum Poisson probabilities for k=3,4,5... goals. The fair decimal odds = 1 / that sum. If your fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's offered odds, you have positive expected value.

BTTS & Over/Under Calculator

Poisson-powered Both Teams to Score (BTTS) and Over/Under probabilities. Estimate expected goals for each team to derive fair odds, identify market mispricing, and find value bets in goal markets.

Home xG (Expected Goals)

Sum of home team's shot xG values

Away xG (Expected Goals)

Sum of away team's shot xG values

54.3%

45.7%

1.84

22.3%

30.1%

6.7%

BTTS Probability: 54.3% — home scores 77.7% of the time, away scores 69.9% of the time. Coin-flip BTTS. Check team news before betting.

How It Works

Poisson Model

Goals follow a Poisson distribution. P(k goals) = e^−λ × λ^k / k!. Each team's λ = their xG (expected goals). Joint probabilities come from multiplying home and away Poisson outcomes.

BTTS Formula

BTTS probability = P(home≥1) × P(away≥1) = (1−e^−λH) × (1−e^−λA). Clean sheet probability = e^−λ. The 0-0 probability = e^−(λH+λA).

18+ educational calculator

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