How is anytime goalscorer probability calculated?

Anytime goalscorer probability uses the Poisson distribution: P(player scores at least 1) = 1 - e^(-playerXG). The player's individual xG is derived from their shot volume and quality. A player with 0.65 xG has approximately a 48% chance of scoring at any time during the match.

What is player xG and how do I find it?

Player xG (expected goals) measures the quality of chances a player receives in a match. It's the sum of all shot xG values for that player. Sources include Understat, FBRef, Opta, and StatsBomb. For pre-match estimates, use the player's rolling 10-match average xG adjusted for opponent strength and match venue.

Player xG Model

Goalscorer Calculator

Calculate anytime goalscorer, multi-goal, and first goalscorer probabilities using Poisson distribution and player xG data.

Home xGAway xGPlayer xG (Individual)Player Side

Anytime Scorer

47.8%

2+ Goals

13.9%

3+ Goals

2.8%

First Goalscorer

15.1%

Fair Odds (Anytime)

2.09

Fair Odds (2+)

7.21

Fair Odds (1st)

6.64

Team xG Share

36.1%

Player Share of Team xG

Player accounts for 36.1% of team's total xG0.65 / 1.80

0%50%100%

How Goalscorer Probability Works

The anytime goalscorer probability uses the Poisson distribution directly on the player's individual xG:

Anytime Scorer = 1 - P(0 goals) = 1 - e^(-playerXG)
2+ Goals = 1 - P(0) - P(1)
3+ Goals = 1 - P(0) - P(1) - P(2)

First Goalscorer ≈ (playerXG / teamXG) x P(team scores ≥ 1) x 0.5

Example: playerXG = 0.65, teamXG = 1.8
  Anytime: 1 - e^(-0.65) = 47.8%
  2+ Goals: 1 - e^(-0.65) - 0.65*e^(-0.65) = 12.3%
  Team xG Share: 0.65 / 1.8 = 36.1%

First goalscorer is approximated as the player's share of team xG multiplied by the probability the team scores at all, adjusted by a factor of ~0.5. This is a simplification — actual first scorer odds depend on player position, penalty duties, and match script.

Tip: Players with >30% team xG share (e.g., Haaland, Mbappe) offer the best value in anytime scorer markets. Compare these fair odds against bookmaker prices to find +EV opportunities.