DraftKings · FanDuel · BetMGM

SGP Correlation Analyzer

Calculate the true probability of your Same Game Parlay by accounting for correlation between legs. NFL QB+WR stack? NBA points+assists? See how correlation affects your EV before you place the bet.

SGP Legs

3.53
71.7%
0.3%
0.4%
+16.8%
+34.6%
13.6%
+EV with correlation (15%) — bet up to 13.6% Kelly

Strong correlation can mask EV. Verify it with historical data — if QB+WR correlations are actually lower, you may be overestimating.

Correlation Guide by Sport

🏈 NFL

Strong +: QB pass yds → WR rec yds (0.6-0.8). If Mahomes throws for 300+, Kelce had a big day.
Strong −: RB rush yds → QB pass yds (negative). Run-heavy game = fewer passes.
Best SGP: QB+WR stack on same team, fading the rush.

🏀 NBA

Strong +: Star pts → team total (0.5-0.7). Tatum 30+ = Celtics likely over team total.
Moderate: Pts + ast (0.3-0.5). High usage = both.
Best SGP: Star player props + team win, factoring blowout risk.

⚾ MLB

Strong +: SP strikeouts → team win (0.4-0.6). Elite SP = more Ks = higher win prob.
Negative: HR props → Under total (neg). Home runs = runs = over more likely.
Best SGP: Pitcher Ks + team ML, avoiding correlated outcomes on both sides.

18+ educational calculator

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