How are corner kicks predicted?

Corner kicks follow a Poisson distribution similar to goals. The expected corners for each team are calculated as the average of their own corners for and the opponent's corners conceded, divided by 2. The Poisson distribution then gives the probability of each corner total.

What is a good corner over/under threshold?

Premier League matches average 10.5 corners. Common thresholds are 9.5, 10.5, and 11.5. The Over 9.5 market typically has the highest probability in high-scoring leagues like the Bundesliga (11.2 avg), while Serie A averages 9.5 corners per match.

Poisson Corners

Corner Kick Calculator

Predict corner kick totals using the Poisson distribution. Estimate expected corners for each team, over/under probabilities, and corner race markets.

Avg Home Corners For

Home team's average corners earned per match

Avg Away Corners For

Away team's average corners earned per match

Avg Corners Conceded (Home)

Home team's corners conceded per match

Avg Corners Conceded (Away)

Away team's corners conceded per match

Exp. Home Corners

5.15

Exp. Away Corners

5.15

Total Expected

10.30

Most Likely Total

10 (12.5%)

Over / Under Probabilities

Threshold	Over %	Under %	Fair Over Odds	Fair Under Odds
Over 7.5	80.6%	19.4%	1.24	5.14
Over 8.5	70.0%	30.0%	1.43	3.33
Over 9.5	57.9%	42.1%	1.73	2.38
Over 10.5	45.4%	54.6%	2.20	1.83
Over 11.5	33.8%	66.2%	2.96	1.51
Over 12.5	23.8%	76.2%	4.21	1.31

Corner Race (Home vs Away)

Home Wins

43.7%

2.29

Tie

12.6%

7.94

Away Wins

43.7%

2.29

Poisson Corner Model

Corner kicks follow a Poisson distribution, similar to goals. Each team's expected corner count is the average of their own corners for and the opponent's corners conceded:

Expected Home = (Home_Corners_For + Away_Corners_Conceded) / 2
Expected Away = (Away_Corners_For + Home_Corners_Conceded) / 2

P(k corners | λ) = e^(-λ) x λ^k / k!

Corner Race: P(Home > Away) = sum over all h > a
  of Poisson(h, λH) x Poisson(a, λA)

The model assumes corners are independent events — a reasonable approximation for pre-match analysis. Actual corner counts can be influenced by match state (teams trailing push for more corners), possession styles, and opposition tactics.

League averages: Bundesliga 11.2, Premier League 10.5, La Liga 9.8, Serie A 9.5, Ligue 1 9.9. Use these as baselines and adjust for team-specific data.