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Compute Kelly sizing, EV, and parlay math for NBA spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. Includes pace-adjusted examples and SGP correlation guidance.
Celtics −5.5 (−108) where your model gives a 54% cover probability
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
A 3-leg parlay using common NBA markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
Different books offer different lines on player points/rebounds/assists. Line shopping a single prop can move you from −115 to +105 — that's the difference between a losing and winning bettor over a season.
An over on a Pacers/Hawks game (high pace) at 240 is mathematically different from an over on a Heat/Magic game (low pace) at 215. Always model team pace before betting totals.
Cross-game prop parlays (SGP+) often carry 20%+ hold. Singles compound at proper EV; SGP+ rarely does.
Books shade props by 2-5% on books with smaller markets. Sharps focus on rebounds and assists, where projections are noisier than points. Use a model + sample size discipline.
Spreads/totals: 4.5%. Moneylines on close games: 3-5%. Player props: 6-12%. Same-game parlays: 15-25%. Find the lowest-hold markets first.
Lines open at sportsbooks roughly 24h pre-game. Sharp money comes in early (steam moves) and late (close to tip). Recreational bettors push lines pre-tip — opposing public consensus on overs and favorites is a known edge.