NFL Betting Calculator
NFL bettors face standing −110 vig on almost every spread and total. This page runs Kelly staking, expected value, and parlay math against real NFL pricing conventions — spreads, moneylines, totals, and same-game parlays.
NFL Markets You'll Actually Bet
NFL Kelly & EV Calculator
Bills −3 (−105) where you model a 56% cover probability
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
NFL Parlay Math
A 3-leg parlay using common NFL markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
NFL-Specific Edges
NFL spreads default to −110 (1.91) — that's a 4.5% vig per side. Your model edge needs to clear that before any bet has positive EV.
QB passing yards over + WR receiving yards over on the same game is correlated. Bookmakers price SGPs assuming partial correlation, but their model is usually conservative — sometimes you find edges, sometimes you pay heavy juice.
NFL probabilities are noisy. Full Kelly maximizes log growth only with perfect probability estimates. Half-Kelly reduces variance ~75% with a small EV cost.
NFL Calculators You'll Use Most
Optimal stake size for +EV NFL bets
EV, ROI, and break-even probability on NFL prices
Combined odds and true probability for NFL multis
Fair probability after stripping the NFL juice
Are you beating the closing line on NFL?
Score and total probabilities for NFL markets
NFL FAQ
Use the no-vig calculator. If both sides are −110 the implied probabilities are 52.4% each, summing to 104.8%. Strip the 4.8% overround proportionally to get fair probabilities of 50/50.
Compare your model's probability against the implied probability of the price you're offered. EV = (your probability × decimal odds) − 1. Anything above zero is positive expected value.
Standalone parlays compound the bookmaker's vig — three −110 legs give the book ~14% hold. Only parlay if you're chasing leverage on confirmed edges or exploiting correlation that the SGP pricer mismodels.