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Run Kelly sizing, EV, and parlay math on MLB run lines, moneylines, F5 markets, and totals. Includes pitcher-leverage examples and Poisson-style total modeling.
Dodgers ML at −180 (decimal 1.56) with a 68% model probability
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
A 3-leg parlay using common MLB markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
First-5-inning markets ignore bullpen variance. If you trust an ace SP but not the bullpen behind him, F5 lines deliver edge that the full-game ML doesn't.
MLB run lines are fixed at ±1.5 with juice swinging the price. Favorites at −1.5 are typically +110 to +160 because winning by 2+ is harder than just winning.
MLB run totals follow a Poisson-ish distribution (with park factors). Our Poisson calculator handles this — feed in expected runs per team and derive Over/Under probabilities.
Yes Run First Inning / No Run First Inning. Books price these around −110/−110. NRFI is +EV on games with two elite SPs — first-inning runs require either a leadoff hitter cluster or a SP misfire.
Coors Field adds ~1.5 expected runs vs an average park. Petco subtracts ~0.7. A 9.5 total in San Diego is mathematically a 10.5+ in Denver. Always check park factor before betting totals.
Rarely. World Series futures carry 40-60% hold. Win-totals (over/under team wins) are tighter at 10-15% but require a strong projection model to beat.