MLB Betting Calculator
Baseball totals move once you account for park factors and who's on the mound. This hub works through Kelly sizing, EV, and parlay math for MLB moneylines, run lines, F5 markets, and totals, with pitcher-leverage examples and Poisson-style total modeling.
MLB Markets You'll Actually Bet
MLB Kelly & EV Calculator
Dodgers ML at −180 (decimal 1.56) with a 68% model probability
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
MLB Parlay Math
A 3-leg parlay using common MLB markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
MLB-Specific Edges
First-5-inning markets ignore bullpen variance. If you trust an ace SP but not the bullpen behind him, F5 lines deliver edge that the full-game ML doesn't.
MLB run lines are fixed at ±1.5 with juice swinging the price. Favorites at −1.5 are typically +110 to +160 because winning by 2+ is harder than just winning.
MLB run totals follow a Poisson-ish distribution (with park factors). Our Poisson calculator handles this — feed in expected runs per team and derive Over/Under probabilities.
MLB Calculators You'll Use Most
Optimal stake size for +EV MLB bets
EV, ROI, and break-even probability on MLB prices
Combined odds and true probability for MLB multis
Fair probability after stripping the MLB juice
Are you beating the closing line on MLB?
Score and total probabilities for MLB markets
MLB FAQ
Yes Run First Inning / No Run First Inning. Books price these around −110/−110. NRFI is +EV on games with two elite SPs — first-inning runs require either a leadoff hitter cluster or a SP misfire.
Coors Field adds ~1.5 expected runs vs an average park. Petco subtracts ~0.7. A 9.5 total in San Diego is mathematically a 10.5+ in Denver. Always check park factor before betting totals.
Rarely. World Series futures carry 40-60% hold. Win-totals (over/under team wins) are tighter at 10-15% but require a strong projection model to beat.