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Calculate Kelly sizing, EV, and parlay math for tennis match winners, set spreads, totals, and prop markets. Includes surface-adjusted and head-to-head examples.
Djokovic at 1.40 with a 78% model probability (clay-court matchup with surface adjustment)
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
A 3-leg parlay using common Tennis markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
Nadal on clay vs Nadal on grass is a different player. ATP/WTA surface-specific Elo ratings outperform overall rankings for predicting matchups. Always check surface form before betting.
Some books refund bets if a player retires mid-match; others treat retirement as a loss. Set-betting markets are especially affected. Read the rule before placing.
Big servers (Isner, Opelka historically) drive totals up. Returners (Murray, Schwartzman) drive them down. Match total = function of both players' hold % and break %.
Start with surface-adjusted Elo, layer in head-to-head record, recent form (last 10 matches), and travel/fatigue. Combine into a logistic regression that outputs match-win probability.
Heavy favorites (e.g. 1.10/8.00) have 5-8% hold. Even matches (1.90/1.90 = 105%) have 5% hold. Live (in-play) tennis can have 8-12% hold during high-volatility moments.
Tennis parlays compound vig like all parlays. Cross-match correlation is near zero (independent events), so the parlay calc is mathematically clean — but the bookmaker hold still applies per leg.