Soccer Betting Calculator
Between 1X2, Asian Handicap, and BTTS, soccer offers more distinct bet types than almost any other sport on this site. This page covers Kelly, EV, parlay, and Poisson math across those markets, with examples drawn from the Premier League, Champions League, and other major European leagues.
Soccer Markets You'll Actually Bet
Soccer Kelly & EV Calculator
Manchester City to win at 1.55 with a model probability of 70%
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
Soccer Parlay Math
A 3-leg parlay using common Soccer markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
Soccer-Specific Edges
The draw eats 25-30% of soccer outcomes. AH lines collapse this into a 2-way market with quarter-goal increments (e.g. −0.25, −0.75) for partial pushes — much more efficient pricing.
Soccer goals follow Poisson distribution closely. If you can estimate each team's expected goals (xG-derived), you can derive 1X2, Over/Under, and BTTS probabilities all at once. Our Poisson calculator does this.
Correct-score markets carry 15-20% hold. Edge only comes from a strong xG model + price comparison across multiple books.
Soccer Calculators You'll Use Most
Optimal stake size for +EV Soccer bets
EV, ROI, and break-even probability on Soccer prices
Combined odds and true probability for Soccer multis
Fair probability after stripping the Soccer juice
Are you beating the closing line on Soccer?
Score and total probabilities for Soccer markets
Soccer FAQ
Model home team xG and away team xG separately. P(home scores k goals) = e^(−λ) × λ^k / k!. Multiply for joint score probabilities, sum across regions to get 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS.
Asian Handicap is the most efficient market — tightest hold (~2-3%) and highest liquidity. 1X2 has higher hold (5-8%). Correct score and goal scorer have 15%+ hold and require strong models.
Draws happen ~25-28% in major European leagues. The implied probability from typical draw odds (3.00-3.50) is 28-33%. The book often overprices the draw — fading it (X-no draw via AH) can be +EV systematically.