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Apply Kelly, EV, parlay, and Poisson math to soccer 1X2, Asian Handicap, totals, BTTS, and correct-score markets. Examples drawn from EPL, UCL, and major European leagues.
Manchester City to win at 1.55 with a model probability of 70%
Or use the full Kelly Calculator with detailed breakdown.
A 3-leg parlay using common Soccer markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
The draw eats 25-30% of soccer outcomes. AH lines collapse this into a 2-way market with quarter-goal increments (e.g. −0.25, −0.75) for partial pushes — much more efficient pricing.
Soccer goals follow Poisson distribution closely. If you can estimate each team's expected goals (xG-derived), you can derive 1X2, Over/Under, and BTTS probabilities all at once. Our Poisson calculator does this.
Correct-score markets carry 15-20% hold. Edge only comes from a strong xG model + price comparison across multiple books.
Model home team xG and away team xG separately. P(home scores k goals) = e^(−λ) × λ^k / k!. Multiply for joint score probabilities, sum across regions to get 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS.
Asian Handicap is the most efficient market — tightest hold (~2-3%) and highest liquidity. 1X2 has higher hold (5-8%). Correct score and goal scorer have 15%+ hold and require strong models.
Draws happen ~25-28% in major European leagues. The implied probability from typical draw odds (3.00-3.50) is 28-33%. The book often overprices the draw — fading it (X-no draw via AH) can be +EV systematically.