Cricket Betting Calculator
Apply Kelly sizing, EV, and parlay math to cricket match-winner, top batsman/bowler, total runs, and session markets. Includes IPL, T20, ODI, and Test cricket examples with realistic odds.
Cricket Markets You'll Actually Bet
Kelly Sizing for Cricket
Mumbai Indians at 1.72 with a 65% model probability (home Wankhede, batting first)
Plug your own probability and odds into the Kelly Criterion calculator — it computes the optimal stake and a half/quarter-Kelly variant for variance control.
Expected Value on Cricket Bets
Chennai Super Kings vs RCB Over 320 total runs at 1.91. Your model gives 56% (flat pitch, small ground).
Use the Expected Value calculator to find break-even probability and ROI for any Cricket bet you're considering.
Cricket Parlay Math
A 3-leg parlay using common Cricket markets:
Run your own combinations through the parlay calculator — it shows true vs offered probability and the bookmaker's hold across legs.
Cricket-Specific Edges
IPL toss winner wins ~48% of matches (not 50%+). Books price toss-winner ML around 1.72−1.85 after toss. The real edge is in chasing totals on dew-affected grounds (Wankhede, Eden Gardens).
Top batsman markets carry 20-35% hold. Only bet if you have genuine inside info (batting order change, injury niggle). Otherwise treat as entertainment — 0.5% Kelly max.
Test cricket session runs (e.g., 'over 85.5 runs in session 1') have 4-6% hold — comparable to NFL spreads. Pitch, weather, and ball age are modelable. Best value in cricket betting.
Calculators You'll Use Most
FAQ
Start with team Elo ratings (separate for T20/ODI/Test). Layer in venue history, toss outcome, batting first vs chasing splits, and player availability. Monte Carlo simulation works well for complex cricket scenarios.
Session runs (Test cricket) has the lowest hold at 4-6%. T20 totals and match winner are next at 6-8%. Player props (top batsman/bowler) have 20-35% hold — avoid unless you have specific information.
Less than the market thinks. Toss-winning captains chase ~60% of the time in IPL, but dew factor at specific venues (Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata) is what actually shifts win probability — not the toss itself.
IPL has the deepest cricket liquidity. Focus on match-winner and total runs markets (tightest hold). Avoid man of the match and most sixes (25%+ hold). Watch team news 30 min before toss — late changes (overseas player swaps) move lines fast.